Covid 5/14: Limbo Under

Previous weekly reports: Covid-19 5/7: Fighting LimboCovid-19 4/30: Stuck in Limbo

Slowly, a nation partially reopens. Is it too much, too soon? It’s too early to know for sure, because of lags, but so far we’ve only seen extraordinary good news. If you don’t think what we saw this past week was good news, either we disagree about how to read the data quite a lot, or you had what I consider highly realistic expectations.

Remarkably little has happened in the last week. There are weeks when decades happen, and previous weeks have felt like that. This one didn’t. This felt like waiting for things to happen and nothing happening except good numbers. Yes, we got some other news, but did any of it matter or surprise much? I would say that it did not.

Last time I did a bunch of analysis and a bit of editorializing alongside the numbers. This time I’ll keep it brief. This is mostly to get the charts out. I’ll get the other stuff out there in distinct posts if it’s worth saying.

The Data

Deaths:

WESTMIDWESTSOUTHNE ex-NYNY
Mar 19-Mar 251166711184203
Mar 26-Apr 13474775024541340
Apr 2-86391335115017833939
Apr 9-158952106147232615345
Apr 16-2210082369173051833994
Apr 23-2911352500168442852810
Apr 30-May 69912413173753492007
May 7-May 131044234416794014~1500*

*- New York includes ~700 reclassified deaths that did not take place this past week, but were instead from past weeks and added to the death count on 5/7. I’ve subtracted them out for purposes of this chart.

Positive Tests:

WESTMIDWESTSOUTHNE ex-NYNY
Mar 19-Mar 25574462937933835428429
Mar 26-Apr 11568420337242243439152901
Apr 2-81945531148396185677265604
Apr 9-151629129267355706192164463
Apr 16-222006534130339326466943437
Apr 23-292187342343337736218942475
Apr 30-May 62342449205378805169324287
May 7-May 132261543264375914020916683

Overall test counts:

USA testsPositive %NY testsPositive %
Mar 19-Mar 2534757716.2%8888232.0%
Mar 26-Apr 172847420.2%11740145.1%
Apr 2-81,067,22019.8%14427345.5%
Apr 9-151,039,79020.1%16085940.1%
Apr 16-221,253,53515.7%14397030.2%
Apr 23-291,480,10113.7%20249921.0%
Apr 30-May 61,733,60110.6%18344613.2%
May 7-May 132,215,0607.4%2029808.2%

The chart tell the story. We expanded testing dramatically and positive counts dropped in every region. New York continues to improve at a much faster clip than elsewhere, and some localities are seeing things get worse, but the overall trend is unmistakable. Positive counts fell in all regions while testing once again expanded substantially.

Deaths are not falling much yet, but they are a lagging indicator. Things are improving.

I don’t feel that much more confident in my priors than I did previously, but then I haven’t felt the need to update them either, in much of any direction.

New York will start its phase 1 reopening this coming week in four of its ten regions. It will likely expand that to seven to ten of them within two weeks. Restaurants come back in phase 3, which is four weeks in. It feels like normal is well on its way. I’m starting to feel much less paranoid, as my true estimate of infections per day in the state drops to 12,478 today, down from 20,200 a week ago. And also with my increased confidence in my infection modeling.

We also get baseball around July 4, assuming the players and owners can agree on how much the players get paid. That’s tricky in the best of times, but ultimately is probably settled one way or another. All theater from here, we hope.

I’m working on some other posts that will hopefully cover other angles.

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3 Responses to Covid 5/14: Limbo Under

  1. myst_05 says:

    Is there information somewhere on why so many people get a test without the test being positive? Do they just have colds/flus? Do they lie about symptoms to get a test? Are they asymptomatic contacts of known cases? Are they hypochondriacs who think they’ve lost their sense of smell? I’m always confused as to how we even get negative tests in the first place.

  2. Pingback: Covid-19 5/29: Dumb Reopening | Don't Worry About the Vase

  3. Pingback: Covid-19 6/4: The Eye of the Storm | Don't Worry About the Vase

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