Category Archives: Uncategorized

Covid 11/19: Don’t Do Stupid Things

There is very good news. We have a second vaccine! Both Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines have now shown 94%+ effectiveness in treating Covid-19. Not to be outdone by Moderna’s report of 94.5% effectiveness, Pfizer has its final results and they … Continue reading

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2020 Election: Prediction Markets versus Polling/Modeling Assessment and Postmortem

Moderation/Commenting: I tried to minimize it, but this post necessarily involves some politics. See note at end of post for comment norms. I hope for this to be the last post I make that has to say anything about the … Continue reading

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Covid 11/12: The Winds of Winter

Spoiler Alert below the fold, can’t be helped. We have perhaps the best possible news. Pfizer’s vaccine is over 90% effective, and they are going to ask for emergency use authorization in a few weeks. Woo-hoo! We also have very … Continue reading

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Covid 11/5: Don’t Mention the War

Mutation has always been an elephant in the Covid-19 room, and I haven’t paid as much attention to it as I should have. It is increasingly clear the Covid-19 has mutated, and the new strain is substantially more infectious than … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 29 Comments

Covid Covid Covid Covid Covid 10/29: All We Ever Talk About

Trump wishes to register a complaint. 

Posted in Uncategorized | 19 Comments

Spoiler-Free Review and then Semi-Walkthrough: Star Traders: Frontiers

Star Traders: Frontiers is a Tier 2 open-world game in which you have a starship and you go where you want and do what you want. You can be any or all of: A merchant who takes spices from one … Continue reading

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Covid 10/22: Europe in Crisis

America’s Covid-19 situation has clearly entered a third wave. Cases and positive test percentages across the country are rising steadily, and deaths are finally starting to follow suit over the last few days. The scaremongers greatly oversold things, but that … Continue reading

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The Uncertainty of Death and Taxes

Follow-up of sorts to: Easy Mode and Hard Mode, also Spoiler-Free Review: Death and Taxes Epistemic Status: Early exploration of concepts that deserve a better, tighter treatment at a future time. This has been in my drafts for a while, … Continue reading

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PredictIt: Presidential Market is Increasingly Wrong

Previously about PredictIt this election cycle: Free Money at PredictIt: 2020 General Election,  Free Money at PredictIt? It is important, on occasion, to state the obvious, on the record, at the proper time. The prediction (alternatively, read: gambling) markets on … Continue reading

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Covid 10/15: Playtime is Over

Previously: Covid 10/8: October Surprise Last week the President got Covid-19, so the post was all about details and timelines. This week, the President has tested negative multiple times and my town closed its playground due to mask non-compliance, so … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 20 Comments