Category Archives: Uncategorized

Covid 7/29: You Play to Win the Game

Few things warm my heart more than playing to win the game. Few things sadden me more than observing someone not playing to win the game.  Usually, that means they are playing a different game instead, whether they admit it … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 36 Comments

Covid 7/22: Error Correction

Delta has taken over, and cases are rising rapidly, with a 58% rise this week after a 65% rise last week. There’s no reason to expect this to turn around in the near term.  Three weeks ago, in One Last … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 65 Comments

Covid 7/15: Rates of Change

Cases rose by over 60% in America this week, and we’re seeing large jumps in cases around the world. I am highly suspicious about the jump in the rate of increase, but Delta certainly seems to be the real deal, … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 55 Comments

Covid 7/8: Delta Takes Over

Delta is now two thirds of sequenced samples from the past week, so we can be confident that it has taken over, and soon will be most cases in America, and soon after that most cases around the world. That’s … Continue reading

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Spoiler-Free Review: Roguebook

If someone asks me what one game they should play, my answer is Slay the Spire. It’s an amazing game, and with it now out for every platform including mobile phones, the only reason not to play is concern that … Continue reading

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Covid 7/1: Don’t Panic

The case numbers this week were clearly bad news. The raw count was somewhat bad news, and the positive test percentage increase was very bad news. It would be easy to treat the whole shift as fully ‘real,’ attribute it … Continue reading

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Covid 6/24: The Spanish Prisoner

The last scare is underway. Delta is an increasing share of Covid cases around the world, causing cases in many places to rise. Are enough people vaccinated? How bad are things going to get before we turn the corner one … Continue reading

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Covid 6/17: One Last Scare

The one last scare, from America’s perspective, is the Delta variant. If we can remain stable or improving once Delta takes over, then barring another even more infectious variant, we’ve won. If and where we can’t do that, it’s not … Continue reading

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The Apprentice Thread

A while back, LessWrong poster Aysajan put up a post asking to be someone’s apprentice. He talked about it with johnswentworth, who I recently confirmed via meeting him in person is awesome and does reliably interesting work, and an apprentice … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 19 Comments

Covid 6/10: Somebody Else’s Problem

Logistics note: This week’s post includes some non-time-sensitive items from last week, including much of the section on the lab leak hypothesis, as my available time last week was limited. Also, I’ll be in NYC from 6/11 until 6/16, so … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 44 Comments