Category Archives: Uncategorized

The moment’s here. My people are all the people. It is time to let my people go. While case counts in many places remain high, we are on the way back down the mountain. The hospitals will hold. People can … Continue reading →

Sources: Scott’s evaluations (includes original predictions), my buy/sell/hold post. Remember: Evaluating Predictions in Hindsight As a yearly tradition, when Scott Alexander comes out with his yearly predictions, I do a buy/sell/hold post, where I say what I would do if … Continue reading →

In the last funding round of the Survival and Flourishing Fund (SFF), I was one of the recommenders whose evaluations helped distribute millions of dollars in charitable grants. I wrote up my experiences here. Now that applications for the next … Continue reading →

The Omicron and Weekly posts are now combined, so this includes the last day’s Omicron developments, which will be how it works going forward. Next week’s will include the probability updates section as well. When there is urgent news, I’ll … Continue reading →

I love this modest proposal so much I am making an exception to my no-New-York-Times rule, and split it off from what was going to be a bonus section in the weekly Covid post. Time to think big.

Omicron has fully taken over, and our uncertainty about it has mostly been resolved. The Omicron pandemic is now the Covid-19 pandemic, and we’re back in a kind of ‘normal mode’ albeit at the top of the Omicron wave. A … Continue reading →

Polymarket’s prediction markets are back and they are more plentiful than ever, both on Covid-19 and otherwise. Americans are not eligible to trade, but plenty of my readers reside elsewhere. And even if you can’t trade, the information component is … Continue reading →

In our educational system, the people are represented by two separate yet equally important groups. The children who have committed no crime, and the adults who prosecute the offenders. These are their stories. We need to close the schools to … Continue reading →

Important note, fleshed out a bit more in Omicron Post #14: From various sources, I have become convinced that rapid tests taken from nose swabs are likely to often be several days slower at detecting infections than rapid tests that … Continue reading →

Important note on testing that I’m including at top of both posts today. From various sources, I have become convinced that rapid tests taken from nose swabs are likely to often be several days slower at detecting infections than rapid … Continue reading →