Monthly Archives: December 2021

Omicron Post #11

The traditional action for New Year’s Eve is to go to a party, stay up until midnight and watch the bell drop, and the traditional song is Auld Lang Syne. I’ve stopped doing any of these things. My traditional action … Continue reading

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Covid 12/30: Infinity War

The new year is about to start out with a bang. For five weeks, we’ve seen Omicron double and double again. That which can’t go on forever, won’t. There aren’t many doublings left. This is it. The CDC’s revised guidelines … Continue reading

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CDC Changes Isolation Guidelines

The CDC has changed its isolation guidelines. Previously, if you tested positive for Covid, you needed to isolate for ten days. Now you only need to isolate for five. The official announcement is here. Read-through first, with my reactions, then … Continue reading

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Omicron Post #10

Reporting in the wake of Christmas remains spotty, but this fog of war was anticipated, and we must do what we can with what we do know. Mostly, what we’ve learned reinforces the picture outlined in Post #9, with reduced … Continue reading

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Omicron: My Current Model

A year and a half ago, I wrote a post called Covid-19: My Current Model. Since then things have often changed, and we have learned a lot. It seems like high time for a new post of this type. Note … Continue reading

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Omicron Post #9

For non-Omicron Covid news (and some additional Omicron news) this week, see the weekly post, the post on testing, and the post on the CDC nowcast. First off, best possible personal news: Me and my family are feeling much better. … Continue reading

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Get Set, Also Go

Paxlovid no longer illegal. Excellent. Alas, production will take a while to scale, and right now there are other more pressing concerns. I thought this week’s headline would be divided over two weeks, but life comes at you fast when … Continue reading

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Testing, Testing, Hopefully

ProPublica came out this week with the best write-up so far of the full extent to which the FDA has been fighting to prevent us from having access to Covid-19 testing. Post is highly recommended. We could have had lots … Continue reading

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What’s Up With the CDC Nowcast?

How’s it going? The CDC nowcast last week was 2.7% Omicron. That seemed like a reasonable guess. The CDC nowcast this week is 73% Omicron, and last week’s nowcast got revised from 2.7% to 12.6%. That’s two retroactive extra doublings … Continue reading

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Omicron Post #8

I have fallen mildly ill, as have my wife and son. So far we don’t have a positive Covid-19 test, and everyone is maximally vaccinated, but given the timing the obvious conclusions do seem likely. Wish me well, and hopefully … Continue reading

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