Monthly Archives: May 2023

When predicting conditional probability of catastrophe from loss of human control over AGI, there are many distinct cruxes. This essay does not attempt a complete case, or the most generally convincing case, or addressing the most common cruxes. Instead these … Continue reading →

What would it mean to solve the alignment problem sufficiently to avoid catastrophe? What do people even mean when they talk about alignment? The term is not used consistently. What would we want or need it to mean? How difficult … Continue reading →

This post outlines a fake framework for thinking about how we might navigate the future. I found it useful to my thinking, hopefully you will find it useful as well.

This is a linkpost for The Crux List. The original text is included as a backup, but it formats much better on Substack, and I haven’t yet had time to re-format it for WordPress or LessWrong.

At least two potentially important algorithmic improvements had papers out this week. Both fall under ‘this is a well-known human trick, how about we use that?’ Tree of Thought is an upgrade to Chain of Thought, doing exactly what it … Continue reading →

For a while, I’ve been keeping a bookmark folder called ‘Papers, Please’ of all the papers I’d like to check out in the future. For those I do get to look at, I’ve compiled my observations, with the intent of … Continue reading →

Regulation was the talk of the internet this week. On Capital Hill, Sam Altman answered questions at a Senate hearing and called for national and international regulation of AI, including revokable licensing for sufficiently capable models. Over in Europe, draft … Continue reading →

Remember the start of the week? That’s when everyone was talking about a leaked memo from a Google employee, saying that neither Google nor OpenAI had a moat and the future belonged to open source models. The author was clearly … Continue reading →

It’s time for another housing roundup, so I can have a place to address the recent discussions about the local impact of housing construction on housing costs.

The big capabilities news this week is a new ChatGPT mode (that I do not have access to yet) called Code Interpreter. It lets you upload giant data files, analyzes them automatically, can even write papers about its findings, many … Continue reading →