Author Archives: TheZvi

Covid 9/17: It’s Worse

Last week we learned there is plausibly a simple, cheap and easy way out of this entire mess. All we have to do is take our Vitamin D. In case it needed to be said, no. We are not taking … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Spoiler-Free Review: Orwell

Orwell is another game in the discrete-choices-over-time genre. In this case, you are an investigator, and choose which ‘datachunks’ to upload into the system. From there, others will take action. Like other games in the genre, if you are going … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Free Money at PredictIt: 2020 General Election

Previously: Free Money at PredictIt? It’s time for another look at PredictIt. Is there free money? What are our best options for free money?  The short answer is that there is free money if and only if you have available … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments

Covid 9/10: Vitamin D

Last week: Covid 9/3: Meet the New CDC Imagine there is a simple, cheap, safe and effective solution for Covid-19.  The solution is something known to be safe. It is widely available for reasonable prices. Any patents have long expired. … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 21 Comments

The Four Children of the Seder as the Simulacra Levels

Previously: Unifying the Simulacra Definitions, Simulacra Levels and their Interactions, On Negative Feedback and Simulacra Simulacra levels are complex, counter-intuitive and difficult to understand. Thus, it is good and right to continue exploring them partly via story and metaphor. The metaphor here will … Continue reading

Posted in Rationality, Simulacra | 10 Comments

Covid 9/3: Meet the New CDC

This week’s news all centers around policy decisions. The new data contains few important surprises, so attention shifts to what actions will be taken and how that will affect the path we follow going forward. The CDC’s fall and transformation … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 19 Comments

Spoiler-Free Review: Death and Taxes

Death and Taxes is a short Tier 3 game, meaning it is a Good game but not universally Worth It or a Must Play. It is a series of discrete choices and has some interesting questions to ask, and I … Continue reading

Posted in Games Other Than Magic, Reviews | 4 Comments

Covid 8/27: The Fall of the CDC

Most weeks, the disaster that was the head of the FDA not having any understanding of statistics and not making any attempt to think about the world would have been the headline. Then the CDC decided to revise its guidelines … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 17 Comments

I Started a Sports and Gambling Substack

The substack is here. The latest post is here and contains predictions for tomorrow’s baseball games. I also posted predictions for yesterday’s games here, and here you can find my offensive team ratings. Pitcher ratings will be posted soon. I … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Impractical Optimization, Sports | Leave a comment

Covid 8/20: A Little Progress

(Writer’s note: Due to the utter trainwreck that is WordPress’ new editor, this week’s post was written in Google Docs and then cut and pasted into WordPress. This is an excellent example of the principle that any given thing is … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 11 Comments