Monthly Archives: October 2018

The Art of the Overbet

Previously: The Kelly Criterion Last time I said, never go full Kelly. In practice, I strongly agree with this. Either one should go far over full Kelly because the core Kelly assumptions have broken down and you want to throw the rules out … Continue reading

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The Kelly Criterion

Epistemic Status: Reference Post / Introduction The Kelly Criterion is a formula to determine how big one should wager on a given proposition when given the opportunity. It is elegant, important and highly useful. When considering sizing wagers or investments, … Continue reading

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Additional arguments for NIMBY

The following post was written in July of 2017 in response to a post by Julia Galef, but I decided not to post/finish it. I figured I’d piled on San Francisco enough. With the recent post on the subject by … Continue reading

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Eternal: The Exit Interview

Previously: Eternal, and Hearthstone Economy versus Magic Economy, The Eternal Grind, My Referral Link to download Eternal if you want to play. Epistemic Status: Played a lot of games. Wrote a lot of words. Those not interested in Magic, Eternal or game design may want to … Continue reading

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