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Monthly Archives: October 2018
The Art of the Overbet
Previously: The Kelly Criterion Last time I said, never go full Kelly. In practice, I strongly agree with this. Either one should go far over full Kelly because the core Kelly assumptions have broken down and you want to throw the rules out … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
5 Comments
The Kelly Criterion
Epistemic Status: Reference Post / Introduction The Kelly Criterion is a formula to determine how big one should wager on a given proposition when given the opportunity. It is elegant, important and highly useful. When considering sizing wagers or investments, … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
6 Comments
Additional arguments for NIMBY
The following post was written in July of 2017 in response to a post by Julia Galef, but I decided not to post/finish it. I figured I’d piled on San Francisco enough. With the recent post on the subject by … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
5 Comments
Eternal: The Exit Interview
Previously: Eternal, and Hearthstone Economy versus Magic Economy, The Eternal Grind, My Referral Link to download Eternal if you want to play. Epistemic Status: Played a lot of games. Wrote a lot of words. Those not interested in Magic, Eternal or game design may want to … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
5 Comments