Monthly Archives: March 2022

Covid 3/31/2022: More of the Same

BA.2 became the majority strain in the United States this week, as expected. Mostly things are continuing as expected, with unsurprising news on a variety of fronts. The biggest surprise is that the second booster shot was approved. Given I … Continue reading

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They Don’t Know About Second Booster

The FDA went ahead and did it, approving a fourth vaccine shot for those age 50 or older. This is a reference post for those wondering if it makes sense to get that second booster. The FDA approved the second … Continue reading

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Ukraine Post #7: Prediction Market Update

It has been about two weeks since I last looked at the prediction markets for the invasion of Ukraine. Since then, prices on many markets have shifted quite a lot, so it is once again time to examine what the … Continue reading

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Ukraine Post #6: More Data and Peace Terms

I was mostly happy with the Covid-style approach I tried out last time. This is an update of ‘all the things worth noting since then’ but excluding prediction markets. I plan to do a prediction market update next, and keep … Continue reading

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Covid 3/24/22: Respite

All is quiet on the Covid front. Let us hope is stays that way. Especially since we have no funding for anything. Executive Summary BA.2 on the rise, leading to some local rises in cases as in NY. Federal government … Continue reading

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Ukraine Post #5: Bits of Information

Rather than attempt a synthesis this time around, I’m going to experiment with the opposite. Over the course of the last three weeks, I kept adding to a long list of sources and interesting things the same way I do … Continue reading

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Covid 3/17/22: The Rise of BA.2

Omicron has made its way through every major country except one – China. Its time seems to have come. As I noted on Monday, China had already locked down 60 million people amid rapidly rising case counts. Unlike previous rounds … Continue reading

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Ukraine #4: Prediction Market Movement Modeling

I previously looked at various prediction markets related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Scott Alexander provides an update on some prices, notices he is confused in various ways by the motions of various prices. It seems easy enough to mostly … Continue reading

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Omicron #16: Danger in China

What is happening in China? Scott Gottlieb says we essentially don’t know the extent to which Omicron has spread in China. What do we know? We know China has not made great use of its time so far, and seems … Continue reading

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Ukraine #3: Decision Theory, Madman Theory and the Mafioso Nature

This is a follow-up post to the last section of Ukraine Post #2 on the need for Better Decision Theory. In particular I want to think more about the following result and some resulting logic and examples. If that’s not … Continue reading

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