Monthly Archives: January 2021

Three different time frames, three different fronts. We continue to muddle through, with some hope that this could be successful relative to our modest expectations. There’s the situation short term, there’s the new strains, there’s the vaccines. 

Vaccine production, and in particular vaccine production by Pfizer and Moderna, has languished for want of a few billion dollars, well within the budget of many individual philanthropists. It is an important fact about the world that none of them … Continue reading →

Aside from worries over the new strains, I would be saying this was an exceptionally good week. Both deaths and positive test percentages took a dramatic turn downwards, and likely will continue that trend for at least several weeks. Things … Continue reading →

Okay is a key concept for which we lack a good detailed handle.  There seems to be some sort of switch in brains, certainly in mine, that goes between modes of Okay and Not Okay. Being in Not Okay Mode … Continue reading →

Over and over and over again, I’ve been told we should expect immunity from infection to fade Real Soon Now, or that immunity isn’t that strong.  With several recent papers and the inevitable media misinterpretations of them, it’s time to … Continue reading →

Pardon me while I make my way to the rooftops. So I’m sure it’s not that simple especially because of regulatory issues, but… did you hear the one where humanity could have produced enough mRNA vaccine for the entire world … Continue reading →

I’ll summarize everything up front. Might as well get on with it. Let’s do the numbers.

Epistemic Status: Highly speculative. I threw this together quickly, and wrote this to document how I went about it. This is an attempt to create a first toy model, so others can error correct and improve, and upon which less-toy … Continue reading →