Monthly Archives: July 2020

Covid 7/30: Whack a Mole

Last week: Covid 7/23: The Second Summit It seems clear that positive test rates, and with them new infections, have peaked in the Southern epicenters. Unless and until something changes, forward looking risk will continue to improve in the South and … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 6 Comments

New Paper on Herd Immunity Thresholds

Previously: On R0 This new paper suggests that herd immunity could be achieved with only about 10% infected rather than the typically suggested 60%-70%. They claim this is due to differences in connectivity and thus exposure, and in susceptibility to infection. … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 22 Comments

Covid 7/23: The Second Summit

Last week: Covid 7/16: Becoming the Mask The news continues to be cautiously good. Positive test rates are likely peaking. Deaths are increasing slower than one would have expected, and could well peak a few weeks from now without having risen … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 23 Comments

Fresh Bread

Learning to bake bread was a top quarantine activity for many. For too long, I neglected to post the method my wife and I have been using for years. It’s time to fix that. This recipe is quick and easy, … Continue reading

Posted in Good Advice, Impractical Optimization, Reference | 10 Comments

Covid 7/16: Becoming the Mask

Previous week: Covid 7/9: Lies, Damn Lies and Death Rates Two weeks ago I predicted a surge in Covid deaths starting on July 2 and picking up on July 7. On July 6, the rolling 7-day average of Covid deaths reached … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 22 Comments

Covid-19: Analysis of Mortality Data

Data source: The CDC, my spreadsheets are here and here which should be easier to work with. Previous Covid-19 work here that is potentially relevant these days: Covid 7/9: Lies, Damn Lies and Death Rates, Covid 7/2: It Could Be Worse, Covid-19: … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus, Reference | 22 Comments

Covid 7/9: Lies, Damn Lies and Death Rates

Previously: Covid 7/2: It Could Be Worse When I posted the link on Twitter, I joked that we already knew this week’s headline. It turns out we didn’t. Not quite yet. I’m waiting on that one until next week. Here’s what … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 29 Comments

Spoiler-Free Review: Horizon Zero Dawn

Previously: Spoiler-Free Review: Witcher 3: Wild Hunt (plus a Spoilerific section), Spoiler-Free Review: Assassin’s Creed Odyssey This review of a giant open world game is being written on July 7. That’s three days after the review of Witcher 3 was posted. You … Continue reading

Posted in Games Other Than Magic, Reviews | 18 Comments

Spoiler-Free Review: Witcher 3: Wild Hunt (plus a Spoilerific section)

Contrast with other recent spoiler-free review: Spoiler-Free Review: Assassin’s Creed Odyssey. In part one of this review, the true spoiler-free section, I seek to answer the question “Should I Play This Game?” while giving the absolute minimum of information. In part … Continue reading

Posted in Games Other Than Magic, Reviews | 6 Comments

Covid 7/2: It Could Be Worse

Previous Update: Covid 6/25: The Dam Breaks General Viewpoint Reading: On R0, Covid-19: My Current Model This past week was not great on the Covid front, but it could have been a lot worse. I don’t mean that statement in a ‘worse … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 19 Comments