Monthly Archives: July 2018

Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?

Epistemic Status: Resident Expert I’m a little late on this, which was an old promise to Robin Hanson (not that he asked for it). I was motivated to deal with this again by the launch of Augur (REP), the crypto … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 10 Comments

Who Wants The Job?

Over this last month, my wife and I searched for and hired a new nanny, as ours had decided to learn programming and move to The Bay. We ended up with a wonderful woman we found through a personal recommendation … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 27 Comments

Simplicio and Sophisticus

Previously (Slate Star Codex):¬†The Whole City is Center Epistemic Status: Note that after writing a lot of this, I checked and Sniffnoy¬†anticipated a lot of this in the comments, but I think both takes are necessary. There are many useful … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 11 Comments