Monthly Archives: November 2021

Omicron Variant Post #2

It’s now been three days since Post #1. The situation is evolving rapidly, so it’s time to check in. What have we learned since then? How should we update our beliefs and world models? There will inevitably be mistakes as … Continue reading

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Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over

The last day has seen the imposition of new travel restrictions and spreading alarm about the Omicron variant. It sure looks like a repeat of what happened with Alpha and Delta, as well as the original strain back in early … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 54 Comments

Covid 11/25: Another Thanksgiving

For my first Thanksgiving post, which somehow was both a year ago and almost a year into the pandemic, I gave thanks at the end of the post. With all that’s happened, it seems more appropriate to do this at … Continue reading

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Paxlovid Remains Illegal: 11/24 Update

What Alex Tabarrok called The Paxlovid Paradox is getting noticed by the people who notice such things, and completely ignored by everyone else. I’ve split off this week’s Paxlovid update to help make the situation easier to notice, and easier … Continue reading

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Covid 11/18: Paxlovid Remains Illegal

I had already written most of this week’s post, and also spun out a way-too-long way-too-deep dive on what happened with a retracted FLCCC paper that that I was planning to publish today but I can’t yet because the rabbit … Continue reading

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Attempted Gears Analysis of AGI Intervention Discussion With Eliezer

Recently, a discussion of potential AGI interventions and potential futures was posted to LessWrong. The picture Eliezer presented was broadly consistent with my existing model of Eliezer’s model of reality, and most of it was also consistent with my own … Continue reading

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Covid 11/11: Winter and Effective Treatments Are Coming

I was considering splitting off my analysis of the effectiveness of Pfizer’s Paxlovid, a new Covid-19 treatment pill, but it’s so straightforward there’s no reason to do that. It works, with our best guess being it is 89% effective at … Continue reading

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Substack Ho?

For a while now, I’ve been unhappy with WordPress. Their new editor is effectively unusable, and I’ve been using first Google Docs and recently LessWrong’s editor to compose new posts. Last week, I was approached by a representative from Substack … Continue reading

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Covid 11/4: The After Times

The hope is that the pandemic will be fully and truly over because case counts will be sufficiently low, and vaccination rates sufficiently high, that we can all agree to move on and resume our lives. The fear is that … Continue reading

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Paths Forward: Scaling the Sharing of Information and Solutions

Follow-up to: An Unexpected Victory: Container Stacking in the Port of Long Beach My chronicle of how Ryan managed to change the container stacking rule in the Port of Long Beach quickly became the most viewed post I’ve ever had. … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 19 Comments