Category Archives: Coronavirus

This week’s news all centers around policy decisions. The new data contains few important surprises, so attention shifts to what actions will be taken and how that will affect the path we follow going forward. The CDC’s fall and transformation … Continue reading →

Most weeks, the disaster that was the head of the FDA not having any understanding of statistics and not making any attempt to think about the world would have been the headline. Then the CDC decided to revise its guidelines … Continue reading →

(Writer’s note: Due to the utter trainwreck that is WordPress’ new editor, this week’s post was written in Google Docs and then cut and pasted into WordPress. This is an excellent example of the principle that any given thing is … Continue reading →

Last time: Covid 8/6: The Case of the Missing Data I got the opportunity during this past week to work with a state official to try and solve the case of the missing data. It felt great to have the help … Continue reading →

Last time: Covid 7/30: Whack a Mole Testing. One could sum up the entire failure on Covid-19 as a failure of testing. We have failed to test individuals. We have failed to ramp up testing capacity fast enough. We have failed … Continue reading →

Last week: Covid 7/23: The Second Summit It seems clear that positive test rates, and with them new infections, have peaked in the Southern epicenters. Unless and until something changes, forward looking risk will continue to improve in the South and … Continue reading →

Previously: On R0 This new paper suggests that herd immunity could be achieved with only about 10% infected rather than the typically suggested 60%-70%. They claim this is due to differences in connectivity and thus exposure, and in susceptibility to infection. … Continue reading →

Last week: Covid 7/16: Becoming the Mask The news continues to be cautiously good. Positive test rates are likely peaking. Deaths are increasing slower than one would have expected, and could well peak a few weeks from now without having risen … Continue reading →

Previous week: Covid 7/9: Lies, Damn Lies and Death Rates Two weeks ago I predicted a surge in Covid deaths starting on July 2 and picking up on July 7. On July 6, the rolling 7-day average of Covid deaths reached … Continue reading →