Category Archives: Coronavirus

Covid 9/3: Meet the New CDC

This week’s news all centers around policy decisions. The new data contains few important surprises, so attention shifts to what actions will be taken and how that will affect the path we follow going forward. The CDC’s fall and transformation … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 19 Comments

Covid 8/27: The Fall of the CDC

Most weeks, the disaster that was the head of the FDA not having any understanding of statistics and not making any attempt to think about the world would have been the headline. Then the CDC decided to revise its guidelines … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 17 Comments

Covid 8/20: A Little Progress

(Writer’s note: Due to the utter trainwreck that is WordPress’ new editor, this week’s post was written in Google Docs and then cut and pasted into WordPress. This is an excellent example of the principle that any given thing is … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 11 Comments

Covid 8/13: Same As It Ever Was

Last time: Covid 8/6: The Case of the Missing Data I got the opportunity during this past week to work with a state official to try and solve the case of the missing data. It felt great to have the help … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 27 Comments

Covid 8/6: The Case of the Missing Data

Last time: Covid 7/30: Whack a Mole Testing. One could sum up the entire failure on Covid-19 as a failure of testing. We have failed to test individuals. We have failed to ramp up testing capacity fast enough. We have failed … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 9 Comments

Covid 7/30: Whack a Mole

Last week: Covid 7/23: The Second Summit It seems clear that positive test rates, and with them new infections, have peaked in the Southern epicenters. Unless and until something changes, forward looking risk will continue to improve in the South and … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 6 Comments

New Paper on Herd Immunity Thresholds

Previously: On R0 This new paper suggests that herd immunity could be achieved with only about 10% infected rather than the typically suggested 60%-70%. They claim this is due to differences in connectivity and thus exposure, and in susceptibility to infection. … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 22 Comments

Covid 7/23: The Second Summit

Last week: Covid 7/16: Becoming the Mask The news continues to be cautiously good. Positive test rates are likely peaking. Deaths are increasing slower than one would have expected, and could well peak a few weeks from now without having risen … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 23 Comments

Covid 7/16: Becoming the Mask

Previous week: Covid 7/9: Lies, Damn Lies and Death Rates Two weeks ago I predicted a surge in Covid deaths starting on July 2 and picking up on July 7. On July 6, the rolling 7-day average of Covid deaths reached … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 22 Comments

Covid-19: Analysis of Mortality Data

Data source: The CDC, my spreadsheets are here and here which should be easier to work with. Previous Covid-19 work here that is potentially relevant these days: Covid 7/9: Lies, Damn Lies and Death Rates, Covid 7/2: It Could Be Worse, Covid-19: … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus, Reference | 22 Comments