Monthly Archives: April 2020

Covid-19 4/30: Stuck in Limbo

Epistemic Status: As with all my Covid-19 posts I’m not any kind of expert and am doubtless making a lot of mistakes. Yet it seems worthwhile to persist. In previous posts I’ve been focused my direct modeling on New York. … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 11 Comments

On “COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons”

Analysis of / response to: COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons The article above, pointed out to me by many good sources, does one of the things we should be doing orders of magnitude more of … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 7 Comments

On New York’s Antibody Tests

Previously: My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/23 pre-Cuomo Data which has links to other previous stuff at the top. We’re all working from the same information, mostly from Cuomo’s slides. Let’s reproduce them here, give the rest of the information, then go from … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 6 Comments

My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/23 pre-Cuomo Data

Previous week: My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/17 Other previous foundational Covid-19 thoughts here: On R0, Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously, Seemingly Popular Covid-19 Model is Obvious Nonsense Spreadsheet I’m using to look at data is here, if you’d like to look. Epistemic Status: Usual warning … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 15 Comments

My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/17

Epistemic Status: Even farther out of my supposed expertise than previous Covid-19 posts. A little over a week ago I started writing up my general thinking about Covid-19. I then ended up pulling out from that post first The One Mistake … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 10 Comments

Evaluating Predictions in Hindsight

Epistemic Status: Confident I have useful things to say, but apologies for the long post because I don’t think it’s worth my time to make it shorter. Better to get thoughts down for those who want to read them. Scott … Continue reading

Posted in Death by Metrics, Guide, Rationality | 22 Comments

Linkpost: A Comprehensive Review of Ikoria, Lair of Behemoths

If Magic: The Gathering is relevant to your interests, enjoy it at CoolStuffInc.

Posted in Magic: The Gathering, Reviews | 4 Comments

Seemingly Popular Covid-19 Model is Obvious Nonsense

Previous Covid-19 thoughts: On R0, Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously Epistemic Status: Something Is Wrong On The Internet. Which should almost always be ignored even when you are an expert, and I am nothing of the kind. However, this was a necessary … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus, Death by Metrics | 17 Comments

The One Mistake Rule

Epistemic Status: The Bed of Procrustes Related to (Said Achmiz at Less Wrong): The Real Rules Have No Exceptions If a model gives a definitely wrong answer anywhere, it is useless everywhere.  This principle is doubtless ancient, and has doubtless … Continue reading

Posted in Rationality | 14 Comments

On R0

Epistemic Status: As with all of my Coronavirus posts, I am not any kind of expert. I am a person thinking out loud, who will doubtless make many mistakes. Treat accordingly. However, the concrete policy proposal contained herein seems right … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 23 Comments