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Monthly Archives: April 2020
Covid-19 4/30: Stuck in Limbo
Epistemic Status: As with all my Covid-19 posts I’m not any kind of expert and am doubtless making a lot of mistakes. Yet it seems worthwhile to persist. In previous posts I’ve been focused my direct modeling on New York. … Continue reading
Posted in Coronavirus
11 Comments
On “COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons”
Analysis of / response to: COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons The article above, pointed out to me by many good sources, does one of the things we should be doing orders of magnitude more of … Continue reading
Posted in Coronavirus
7 Comments
On New York’s Antibody Tests
Previously: My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/23 pre-Cuomo Data which has links to other previous stuff at the top. We’re all working from the same information, mostly from Cuomo’s slides. Let’s reproduce them here, give the rest of the information, then go from … Continue reading
Posted in Coronavirus
6 Comments
My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/23 pre-Cuomo Data
Previous week: My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/17 Other previous foundational Covid-19 thoughts here: On R0, Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously, Seemingly Popular Covid-19 Model is Obvious Nonsense Spreadsheet I’m using to look at data is here, if you’d like to look. Epistemic Status: Usual warning … Continue reading
Posted in Coronavirus
15 Comments
My Covid-19 Thinking: 4/17
Epistemic Status: Even farther out of my supposed expertise than previous Covid-19 posts. A little over a week ago I started writing up my general thinking about Covid-19. I then ended up pulling out from that post first The One Mistake … Continue reading
Posted in Coronavirus
10 Comments
Evaluating Predictions in Hindsight
Epistemic Status: Confident I have useful things to say, but apologies for the long post because I don’t think it’s worth my time to make it shorter. Better to get thoughts down for those who want to read them. Scott … Continue reading
Posted in Death by Metrics, Guide, Rationality
22 Comments
Linkpost: A Comprehensive Review of Ikoria, Lair of Behemoths
If Magic: The Gathering is relevant to your interests, enjoy it at CoolStuffInc.
Posted in Magic: The Gathering, Reviews
4 Comments
Seemingly Popular Covid-19 Model is Obvious Nonsense
Previous Covid-19 thoughts: On R0, Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously Epistemic Status: Something Is Wrong On The Internet. Which should almost always be ignored even when you are an expert, and I am nothing of the kind. However, this was a necessary … Continue reading
Posted in Coronavirus, Death by Metrics
17 Comments
The One Mistake Rule
Epistemic Status: The Bed of Procrustes Related to (Said Achmiz at Less Wrong): The Real Rules Have No Exceptions If a model gives a definitely wrong answer anywhere, it is useless everywhere. This principle is doubtless ancient, and has doubtless … Continue reading
Posted in Rationality
14 Comments
On R0
Epistemic Status: As with all of my Coronavirus posts, I am not any kind of expert. I am a person thinking out loud, who will doubtless make many mistakes. Treat accordingly. However, the concrete policy proposal contained herein seems right … Continue reading
Posted in Coronavirus
23 Comments