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Monthly Archives: February 2022
Ukraine Post #1: Prediction Markets
I am working on seeing how comprehensively I can cover and discuss the war, but that takes time and the speed premium is super high. I decided to start here, and write quickly. Apologies in advance for any mistakes, oversights, … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
38 Comments
Less Lightning Links at Length #1
These are the things that I couldn’t fit into a Covid post even in the Not Covid section, but which aren’t big enough to deserve their own spin-off posts, and which are not time-sensitive. With Covid winding down, I had … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
49 Comments
Covid 2/24/22: The Next War
Russia has invaded Ukraine, with an explicit goal of ‘demilitarization and denazification.’ On its face, this has nothing to do with Covid. The invasion may reflect a perception, either on the part of Putin or otherwise, from our Covid-19 response … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
34 Comments
Convoy Crackdown
The convoy has been dispersed. Yet Tyler Cowen was clearly correct that this will be a very important event. The story has barely begun.
Posted in Uncategorized
51 Comments
Encouragement to Instill Confidence?
I found this interesting and decided to overthink it. Before proceeding, pause to think about whether this seems right to you and why.
Posted in Uncategorized
23 Comments
Covid 2/17/22: Coasting Downwards
As cases and hospitalizations continue to drop, restrictions are slowly being lifted and life is returning to its new normal. Masks are still sticking around in many places where they no longer make physical sense, and will doubtless continue to … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
54 Comments
Convoy Continued
Previously: Convoy, also coverage from weekly post. We continue to have ourselves a convoy, as well as attempts at similar additional convoys elsewhere. We also have some rather startling actions on the part of the Canadian government, which made the … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
66 Comments
Paper is True
Postscript to: Rock is Strong Always choosing Rock, broadly construed, is freerolling on the efforts of others and/or you are lying. You are in at some important sense defecting. The problem of an information cascade is real. You are not … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
22 Comments
Rock is Strong
Response to (Scott Alexander): Heuristics That Almost Always Work Everybody wants a rock. It’s easy to see why. If all you want is an almost always right answer, there are places where they almost always work.
Posted in Uncategorized
13 Comments
Covid 2/10/22: Happy Birthday
Happy birthday. This week CNN’s home page literally led with a story about a boy trapped down a well, then pivoted to Olympic coverage with a side of continued complaining about Donald Trump. Two years into the pandemic, we have … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
54 Comments