Monthly Archives: February 2022

Ukraine Post #1: Prediction Markets

I am working on seeing how comprehensively I can cover and discuss the war, but that takes time and the speed premium is super high. I decided to start here, and write quickly. Apologies in advance for any mistakes, oversights, … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 38 Comments

Less Lightning Links at Length #1

These are the things that I couldn’t fit into a Covid post even in the Not Covid section, but which aren’t big enough to deserve their own spin-off posts, and which are not time-sensitive. With Covid winding down, I had … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 49 Comments

Covid 2/24/22: The Next War

Russia has invaded Ukraine, with an explicit goal of ‘demilitarization and denazification.’ On its face, this has nothing to do with Covid. The invasion may reflect a perception, either on the part of Putin or otherwise, from our Covid-19 response … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 34 Comments

Convoy Crackdown

The convoy has been dispersed. Yet Tyler Cowen was clearly correct that this will be a very important event. The story has barely begun.

Posted in Uncategorized | 51 Comments

Encouragement to Instill Confidence?

I found this interesting and decided to overthink it. Before proceeding, pause to think about whether this seems right to you and why.

Posted in Uncategorized | 23 Comments

Covid 2/17/22: Coasting Downwards

As cases and hospitalizations continue to drop, restrictions are slowly being lifted and life is returning to its new normal. Masks are still sticking around in many places where they no longer make physical sense, and will doubtless continue to … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 54 Comments

Convoy Continued

Previously: Convoy, also coverage from weekly post. We continue to have ourselves a convoy, as well as attempts at similar additional convoys elsewhere. We also have some rather startling actions on the part of the Canadian government, which made the … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 66 Comments

Paper is True

Postscript to: Rock is Strong Always choosing Rock, broadly construed, is freerolling on the efforts of others and/or you are lying. You are in at some important sense defecting. The problem of an information cascade is real. You are not … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 22 Comments

Rock is Strong

Response to (Scott Alexander): Heuristics That Almost Always Work Everybody wants a rock. It’s easy to see why. If all you want is an almost always right answer, there are places where they almost always work.

Posted in Uncategorized | 13 Comments

Covid 2/10/22: Happy Birthday

Happy birthday. This week CNN’s home page literally led with a story about a boy trapped down a well, then pivoted to Olympic coverage with a side of continued complaining about Donald Trump. Two years into the pandemic, we have … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 54 Comments