Monthly Archives: February 2021

Scott Alexander reviewed his Covid-19 predictions, and I did my analysis as well.  It was a quiet week, with no big news on the Covid front. There was new vaccine data, same as the old vaccine data – once again, … Continue reading →

Scott Alexander has given his verdict on our predictions for Covid from April 2020.  This seems like an excellent opportunity to reflect on those predictions. I’ll also attempt to render my verdict on the predictions, based on the principles I … Continue reading →

This week the CDC released new guidelines for schools. I’ve spun my analysis of that off into its own post. Scott Alexander also shared some good thoughts on Covid-19 in two new posts, and I discuss both of those, and … Continue reading →

Author’s Note: This was originally the title topic of this week’s Covid post (as ‘School Daze’), but the post was getting long and this is its own issue, so I’m moving the guidelines discussion to its own post.  As usual, … Continue reading →

Nothing both unexpected and important happened this week, other than that we might be on the verge of at least partially solving obesity. There’s plenty else to talk about, but everything was on trend. That doesn’t mean my predictions were … Continue reading →

Epistemic Status: Speed premium, will hopefully flesh out more carefully in future Previously: Why I Am Not in Charge A brief update about my exchange with Scott from this past week.

Epistemic Status: Long piece written because the speed premium was too high to write a short one. Figured I should get my take on this out quickly. (Note: This has been edited to reflect that I originally mixed up UpToDate … Continue reading →

The vaccine data is in. It’s pretty great. We now have six known safe and effective Covid-19 vaccines: Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Novavax, Johnson & Johnson and Sputnik. Pfizer and Moderna are amazingly safe and effective. They have been approved and … Continue reading →