AI #36: In the Background

Wow, what a week. We had the Executive Order, which I read here so you don’t have to and then I have a tabulation of the reactions of others.

Simultaneously there was the UK AI Summit.

There was also robust related discussion around Responsible Scaling Policies, and the various filings companies did in advance of the Summit.

I touched on Anthropic’s RSP in particular in previous weeks, but I did not do a sufficiently close analysis and many others have offered more detailed thoughts as well, and the context has evolved.

So I am noting that I am not covering those important questions in the weekly roundup, and they will be covered by one or more later distinct posts. I also potentially owe an after action report from EA Global Boston, if I can find the time.

This post is instead about everything else.

Reactions to the Executive Order

Previously: On the Executive Order

This post compiles the reactions of others that I have seen to Biden’s Executive Order on AI, including reactions that were based only on the fact sheet, as well as my reactions to those reactions.

Reaction on the worried side was measured. It could best be described as cautious optimism.

Reaction on the unworried side was sometimes measured, but often not measured. It could perhaps be frequently described as unhinged.

On the Executive Order

Or: I read the executive order and its fact sheet, so you don’t have to.

I spent Halloween reading the entire Biden Executive Order on AI.

This is the pure ‘what I saw reading the document’ post. A companion post will cover reactions to this document, but I wanted this to be a clean reference going forward.

AI #35: Responsible Scaling Policies

There is much talk about so-called Responsible Scaling Policies, as in what we will do so that what we are doing can be considered responsible. Would that also result in actually responsible scaling? It would help. By themselves, in their current versions, no. The good scenario is that these policies are good starts and lay groundwork and momentum to get where we need to go. The bad scenario is that this becomes safetywashing, used as a justification for rapid and dangerous scaling of frontier models, a label that avoids any actual action or responsibility.

Others think it would be better if we flat out stopped. So they say so. And they protest. And they point out that the public is mostly with them, at the same time that those trying to play as Very Serious People say such talk is irresponsible.

Future persuasion will be better. Sam Altman predicts superhuman persuasion ability prior to superhuman general intelligence. What would that mean? People think they would not be fooled by such tactics. Obviously, they are mistaken.

As usual, lots of other stuff as well.

On the not-explicitly-about-AI front, I would encourage you if you haven’t yet to check out my review of Going Infinite. Many are calling it both fascinating and a rip-roaring good time, some even calling it my best work. I hope you enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it.

Book Review: Going Infinite

Previously: Sadly, FTX

I doubted whether it would be a good use of time to read Michael Lewis’s new book Going Infinite about Sam Bankman-Fried (hereafter SBF or Sam). What would I learn that I did not already know? Was Michael Lewis so far in the tank of SBF that the book was filled with nonsense and not to be trusted?

I set up a prediction market, which somehow attracted over a hundred traders. Opinions were mixed. That, combined with Matt Levine clearly reporting having fun, felt good enough to give the book a try.

I need not have worried.

AI #34: Chipping Away at Chip Exports

It did not get the bulk of the attention, but the actual biggest story this week was that America tightened the rules on its chip exports, closing the loophole Nvidia was using to create the A800 and H800. Perhaps the new restrictions will actually have teeth.

Also new capabilities continue to come in based on the recent GPT upgrades, along with the first signs of adversarial attacks.

Also a lot of rhetoric, including, yes, that manifesto. Yes, I do cover it.

Fertility Roundup #2

The world is slowly waking up to the fertility crisis. There is more acknowledgement of the problem, and there is more talk of potential practical solutions. I do not believe the topic is a realistic target for Balsa Policy Institute, but I will continue to keep an eye on the ball and issue periodic roundups like this one.

AI #33: Cool New Interpretability Paper

This has been a rough week for pretty much everyone. While I have had to deal with many things, and oh how I wish I could stop checking any new sources for a while, others have had it far worse. I am doing my best to count my blessings and to preserve my mental health, and here I will stick to AI. As always, the AI front does not stop.

Childhood Roundup #3

It’s time once again for a roundup of all the childhood-related stories I’ve noticed since the last such post that don’t fit in elsewhere.

In addition to the standard post, I have a personal note, which is that unfortunately our current nanny’s health does not allow her to continue, and thus we in the process of searching and doing interviews for a new full-time nanny for our three children here in Manhattan. I hope to have someone in place by the end of the week. If you are or know someone we should consider, please do quickly contact me right away with the relevant information. You can DM me on Twitter, PM me on LesssWrong or email me through substack (or email directly if you know it). Thanks in advance.

AI #32: Lie Detector

Can you tell if an AI is lying to you? A new paper claims that we essentially can do exactly that, at least under the right conditions. Another paper claims we can inject various sentiments into responses, getting the AI to do what we wish. Interpretability is making progress. It is exciting to think about the implications. In the short term, it would be great if we could use this to steer responses and to detect and correct hallucinations. There’s a lot of potential here to explore.

In the longer term, I am more skeptical of such strategies. I do not think lie detection is a viable primary control or alignment strategy. I worry that if we go down such a path, we risk fooling ourselves, optimizing in ways that cause the techniques to stop working, and get ourselves killed. Indeed, even attempts to grab the low-hanging fruit of mundane utility from such advances risks starting us down this process. Still, it’s exciting, and suggests we might see more breakthroughs to follow.

We also saw Meta announce new AI-infused glasses, at a highly reasonable price point. They will be available soon, and we will see how much mundane utility is on offer.

As usual, there is also a lot of other stuff happening, including the disappointing resolution of the Open Philanthropy Worldview Contest. On the plus side, they are hiring for their global catastrophic risk team, so perhaps you can help.