On OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework

Previously: On RSPs.

Be Prepared

OpenAI introduces their preparedness framework for safety in frontier models. 

A summary of the biggest takeaways, which I will repeat at the end:

1. I am very happy the preparedness framework exists at all.
2. I am very happy it is beta and open to revision.
3. It’s very vague and needs fleshing out in several places.
4. The framework exceeded expectations, with many great features. I updated positively.
5. I am happy we can talk price, while noting our prices are often still far apart.
6. Critical thresholds seem too high, if you get this wrong all could be lost. The High threshold for autonomy also seems too high.
7. The framework relies upon honoring its spirit and not gaming the metrics.
8. There is still a long way to go. But that is to be expected.

Monthly Roundup #13: December 2023

I have not actually forgotten that the rest of the world exists. As usual, this is everything that wasn’t worth an entire post and is not being saved for any of the roundup post categories.

(Roundup post categories are currently AI, Medical and Health, Housing and Traffic, Dating, Childhood and Education, Fertility, Startups, and potentially NEPA and Clean Energy.)

AI #42: The Wrong Answer

With the year ending and my first Vox post coming out, this week was a natural time to take stock. I wrote my first best-of post in a long time and laid out my plans for my 501c(3).

It was also another eventful week. We got a lot more clarity on the OpenAI situation, although no key new developments on the ground. The EU AI Act negotiators reached a compromise, which I have not yet had the opportunity to analyze properly. We got a bunch of new toys to play with, including NotebookLM and Grok, and the Gemini API.

I made a deliberate decision not to tackle the EU AI Act here. Coverage has been terrible at telling us what is in the bill. I want to wait until we can know what is in it, whether or not that means I need to read the whole damn thing myself. Which, again, please do not force me to do that if there is any other way. Somebody help me.

The Best of Don’t Worry About the Vase

Hello everyone! This is going to be a bit of a housekeeping post and a welcome to new subscribers.

Note that this is not the primary version of my writing, which can be found on Substack, but it is a full copy of all posts found there.

My writing can be intimidating. There is a lot of it, and it’s often dense. As always, choose only the parts relevant to your interests, do not be afraid to make cuts. I attempt to make every post accessible as an entry point, but I also want to build up a superstructure over time. This seemed like a good time to recap some of the very best of my old writing and talk about what I’m up to.

Over many years, this blog has morphed from focusing on rationality to COVID to AI.

But not only those things. I’m interested in almost everything. I write periodic updates about housing policy, childhood, fertility, medicine and health, gaming and grab bags of everything else.

In addition to writing, I also run a small 501c(3) with one employee called Balsa Research. Balsa is dedicated to laying groundwork on a few key issues to make big civilizational wins possible, starting with repeal of the Jones Act. This link is to an update on that, and you can donate here. Your subscriptions here are also very much appreciated.

Underlying it all continues to be my version of the principles of rationality.

Balsa Update and General Thank You

Wow, what a year it has been. Things keep getting crazier.

Thank you for taking this journey with me. I hope I have helped you keep pace, and that you have been able to discern for yourself the parts of this avalanche of words and events that were helpful. I hope to have helped things make somewhat more sense.

And I hope many of you have taken that information, and used it not only to be able to check Twitter less, but also to make better decisions, and, hopefully, to help make the world a better place—one in which humanity is more likely to survive.

Recently, my coverage of the Biden administration executive order and  the events at OpenAI have been received very positively. I’d like to do more in that mold: more focused, shorter pieces that pull the story together, hopefully de-emphasizing more ephemeral weekly posts over time. I am also happy that this work has potentially opened doors that might grant me larger platforms and other ways to make a difference.

If you feel it would make the world better to do so, please help spread the word to others who would find my work useful.

Thank you especially to  both my long-time and recent paid subscribers and my Patreon supporters. It is important to me that all my content remain freely accessible— so please do not subscribe if it would be a hardship—but subscriptions and other contributions are highly motivating and allow me to increase my budget.

You can also help by contributing to my 501c(3), Balsa Research.

The rest of this post is an update on what is happening there.

OpenAI: Leaks Confirm the Story

Previously: OpenAI: Altman Returns, OpenAI: The Battle of the Board, OpenAI: Facts from a Weekend, additional coverage in AI#41.

We have new stories from The New York Times, from Time, from the Washington Post and from Business Insider.

All paint a picture consistent with the central story told in OpenAI: The Battle of the Board. They confirm key facts, especially Altman’s attempted removal of Toner from the board via deception. We also confirm that Altman promised to help with the transition when he was first fired, so we have at least one very clear cut case of Altman saying that which was not.

Much uncertainty remains, especially about the future, but past events are increasingly clear.

The stories also provide additional color and key details. This post is for those who want that, and to figure out what to think in light of the new details.

The most important new details are that NYT says that the board proposed and was gung ho on Brett Taylor, and says D’Angelo suggested Summers and grilled Summers together with Altman before they both agreed to him as the third board member. And that the new board is remaining quiet while it investigates, echoing the old board, and in defiance of the Altman camp and its wish to quickly clear his name.

AI #41: Bring in the Other Gemini

The biggest news this week was at long last the announcement of Google’s Gemini. Be sure to check that out. Note that what is being rolled out now is only Gemini Pro, the Gemini Ultra model that could rival GPT-4 is not yet available.

It does not seem I am doing a good job cutting down on included material fast enough to keep pace. A lot is happening, but a lot will likely be happening for a long time. If your time is limited, remember to focus on the sections relevant to your interests.

Also, if you are going to be at the New York Solstice or the related meetup, please do say hello.

Gemini 1.0

It’s happening. Here is CEO Pichai’s Twitter announcement. Here is Demis Hassabis announcing. Here is the DeepMind Twitter announcement. Here is the blog announcement. Here is Gemini co-lead Oriol Vinyals, promising more to come. Here is Google’s Chief Scientist Jeff Dean bringing his best hype.

EDIT: This post has been updated for the fact that I did not fully appreciate how fake Google’s video demonstration was.

Based Beff Jezos and the Accelerationists

It seems Forbes decided to doxx the identity of e/acc founder Based Beff Jezos. They did so using voice matching software.

Given Jezos is owning it given that it happened, rather than hoping it all goes away, and people are talking about him, this seems like a good time to cover this ‘Beff Jezos’ character and create a reference point for if he continues to come up later.

If that is not relevant to your interests, you can and should skip this one.

On ‘Responsible Scaling Policies’ (RSPs)

This post was originally intended to come out directly after the UK AI Safety Summit, to give the topic its own deserved focus. One thing led to another, and I am only doubling back to it now.

Responsible Deployment Policies

At the AI Safety Summit, all the major corporate players were asked: What are your company policies on how to keep us safe? What are your responsible deployment policies (RDPs)? Except that they call them Responsible Scaling Policies (RSPs) instead.

I deliberately say deployment rather than scaling. No one has shown what I would consider close to a responsible scaling policy in terms of what models they are willing to scale and train.