Leaders of Men

Related to (Eliezer Yudkowsky): Inadequacy and Modesty

Epistemic Status: Confident. No sports knowledge required.

In 2005, Willie Randolph became manager of the New York Mets.

In his first five games as manager, all of which he lost, Willie made more decisions wrong than I thought possible. If he needed to change pitchers, he waited. Other times he changed pitchers for no reason. Starting lineups made zero sense. Position players bunted. And so on. He cost us at least one of those games. My friend Seth and I called for Willie’s head.

He would go on to an excellent 97 win season in 2006, come in second in manager-of-the-year voting, get a contract extension, and only get fired after wearing out our starting pitchers so much that we experienced one of the most epic late season collapses in baseball history in 2007, followed by a horrible 2008.

Willie’s in-game decisions did not improve. If anything, they got worse.

Despite this, we came to understand why Willie got and kept his job.

Willie Randolph was a leader of men.

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Posted in Economic Analysis, Rationality, Sports | 15 Comments

Seek Fair Expectations of Others’ Models

Epistemic Status: Especially about the future.

Response To (Eliezer Yudkowsky): There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence

It’s long, but read the whole thing.  Eliezer makes classic Eliezer points in classic Eliezer style. Even if you mostly know this already, there’s new points and it’s worth a refresher. I fully endorse his central point, and most of his supporting arguments.

What Eliezer has rarely been, is fair. That’s part of what makes The Sequences work. I want to dive in where he says he’s going to be blunt – as if he’s ever not been – so you know it’s gonna be good: Continue reading

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Welcome to the World

Epistemic Status: Good news, everyone!

On October 5, 2017, my second son was born. Everyone say hello to the wonderful Gideon Mowshowitz:

As you can imagine, it’s been quite a week. We are all doing well, and slowly recovering aside from lack of sleep.

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Beginners’ Meditation

I was about to meditate. There was a beginners’ meditation class three blocks away at the 14th Street Y. Seemed wrong to not check it out. Low risk, potential high reward. Non-zero story value. Might even learn something.

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The Fish-Head Monk

Epistemic Status: Parable

By way of the comments on SlateStarCodex, from Essential Sufism:

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Sabbath Commentary

Epistemic Status: Several months of experimentation, then talking from the hip

Commentary On: Bring Back the Sabbath

Required: Slack

I have a lot of thoughts on the topic that don’t belong in the main presentation. I’m going to put them here in disorganized form for the curious. These claims are believed, but I may not have good explicit evidence to defend them with. I’m fine with that.

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Bring Back the Sabbath

Epistemic Status: Several months of experimentation

Previously: Choices are BadChoices Are Really BadComplexity Is Bad, Play in Easy Mode, Play in Hard ModeOut to Get You, Slack

For More Thoughts After: Sabbath Commentary

Alternate Take (Endorsed): Sabbath Hard and Go Home.

Slack is life. It is under attack. We must fight for it.

Choices Are Bad. Really Bad. We need a break.

Complexity Is Bad. We need a break.

Work is exhausting. We need a break.

Relaxation is hard. Our attempts fail or backfire.

The modern world is Out to Get You. We need a break.

We need time for ourselves. Time that is truly our own.

Without setting aside such time, that won’t happen. Even when you take time, you’ll be continuously choosing to take time, and… well, whoops.

Modern life made the problem worse, but the problem is ancient. The ancients had an answer.

We need rules. We need ritual.

We need the Sabbath. Continue reading

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