Monthly Archives: December 2021

This is a reference post for the Law of No Evidence. Scott Alexander did us all a public service this week with his post The Phrase “No Evidence” Is a Red Flag for Bad Science Communication. If you have not … Continue reading →

The main action continues to be at the Omicron post. There’s still some background developments and near term developments worth noticing, but for now nothing that seems as important or that seems terribly urgent, so read that first. Executive Summary … Continue reading →

This is a linkpost to my write-up of my experiences as a recommender in the Survival and Flourishing Fund, which you can find at my Substack, my WordPress or at LessWrong.  I figured this was sufficiently relevant to people’s interests … Continue reading →

Previous posts: #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, last weekly post Well, that escalated quickly. Omicron has already escalated quickly in log terms, and will soon escalate quickly in linear terms. The core questions remain the same, and we continue to … Continue reading →

Omicron is coming. We are not preparing for it. That is the news that matters. In addition to that, Delta is a growing problem as we face a winter wave. Future problems don’t protect us from current problems, no matter … Continue reading →

A few key questions determine our fate. We are rapidly getting closer to the answers. That doesn’t mean we have the magnitudes of the answers. The magnitudes matter, and they matter a lot. It’s still a stronger understanding than even … Continue reading →

Previous Omicron updates: #1, #2, #3. Last weekly non-Omicron update. An introductory word: Thanks to Dominic Cummings, I have a lot of new readers, many from the United Kingdom, so I want to welcome all of you, and I hope … Continue reading →

This weekly post is for things that are not Omicron. For the Omicron news, see my Omicron updates (#1, #2, #3), the last of which came out the same day as this post. There’s an extensive speed premium, so I’ve … Continue reading →

I have split off the Omicron post from the weekly post, which covers other aspects of Covid. I made judgment calls on where to put a few things. Omicron continues to spread quickly, but the news surrounding Omicron is clearly … Continue reading →