Monthly Archives: May 2020

Covid-19: New York’s Antibody Tests 2

Previously: On New York’s Antibody Tests New York continues to be the only place even trying to do antibody tests in a way that involves releasing information on the population. What do we now know? How should we update? What comes next? As … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus | 6 Comments

On Negative Feedback and Simulacra

Response to (Elizabeth @ LessWrong): Negative Feedback and Simulacra Requires/Assumes (Compass Rose): Simulacra and Subjectivity Epistemic Status: Exploring, thinking out loud, taking a break from Covid-19 stuff, etc. Long post is long because I didn’t have the time or insight … Continue reading

Posted in Rationality, Simulacra | 7 Comments

SlateStarCodex 2020 Predictions: Buy, Sell, Hold

Previously: Evaluating Predictions in Hindsight Epistemic Status: Having fun Evaluating predictions is hard, especially about the future. Let’s do it. The most frustrating part of predictions is defining them carefully. A lot of Scott’s 2020 predictions seem like they have a … Continue reading

Posted in Rationality | 9 Comments